Krzhizhanovskogo Street, 24/35, korpus 5, 117218, Moscow, Russia
Tel.: +7 (499) 128-85-19
Fax: +7 (495) 719-07-40
Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Presented in this article1 are results from an empirical study, which was directed at exam ining the consequences which leaders might face if the foreign policy they pursue is not supported by citizens. Scientific literature examines the phenomenon of “domestic losses” mainly within the context of countries interacting under conditions of escalating tension and exchanging threats. Substantiated is the need to examine said phenomenon in other fields of foreign and domestic policy, which do not necessarily have to do with conflict interaction. The authors rely on the following assumption: generating domestic losses implies, first of all, accepting the consequences of a foreign policy which lead to failure in fulfilling important national interests: providing national security and economic prosperity, supporting identity, as well as having influence on the international arena. Second of all, said process is associated with there being a certain inclination to perform actions, the result of which can be a leader losing power due to insufficient votes at an election, an invol- untary resignation or protests. When citizens generate domestic losses, this takes place under the influence of three groups of factors. The first one reflects the influence of the institutional context: the oppositional parties’ attitudes towards policies pursued, election cycle, the level of support for the president’s activities, the country’s economic status. The second group of factors has to do with features of perceiving successes and failures when implementing basic sorts of national interests. The third one is represented by the characteristics of those citizens who evaluate the results of implementing the foreign political course. Notably, the peculiarities when it comes to perceiving the consequences of these results are linked to the socio-demographic characteristics of those surveyed (gender, age, education). The way in which the indicated factors influenced generating domestic losses was examined during and empirical study, which was based upon an experiment method integrated into the questionnaire. It was determined that citizens are prepared to react to an unsuccessful foreign policy pursued by their nation’s leader, by means of generating domestic losses. This is associated with a refusal to support their leader during an election. The subjects who generate domestic losses are composed mainly of men and those who represent the younger generation (18 – 30 years of age). Domestic losses can be caused by failure to implement every basic category of national interests. However, those groups of the population which are identified based on criteria such as gender, age and education take equally low interest in supporting national identity for the sake of generating domestic losses for the leader. Meanwhile those surveyed are prepared to deny their leader support if they associate issues of security, economic prosperity or a loss of influence on the international arena with the foreign policy pursued by their leader.
foreign policy, public opinion, domestic costs, gender, age, education.
Debs A., Goemans H. E. Regime Type, the Fate of Leaders, and War.
American Political Science Review, 2010, Vol. 104, no 3, pp. 430–445.
Fearon J. D. Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. American Political Science Review. 1994, Vol. 88, no 3, pp. 577–592.
Gartzke E., Lupu Y. Still Looking for Audience Costs. Security Studies. 2012, Vol. 21, no 3, pp. 391–397.
Gavra D. P. Obsсhestvennoe mnenie i vlast’: rezhimy i mehanizmy vzaimodeystvija [Public Opinion and Power: Regimes and Mechanisms of Interaction]. Zhurnal sociologii i social’noy antropologii, 1998, no 4, pp. 53–77.
Gilens M. An Anatomy of Survey-Based Experiments. Navigating Public Opinion. Polls, Policy and the Future of American Democracy. Ed by J. Manza, L. Cook, B. I. Page. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2002, pp. 232–250.
Goemans H. War and Punishment: the Causes of War Termination and the First World War. Princeton (New Jersey), Princeton University Press, 2000. 355 p.
Interes k vneshney politike: monitoring. Kak ocenivajutsia rezul’taty rossiyskoy vneshney politiki? [Interest to Foreign Policy: Monitoring. How are the Results of Russia’s Foreign policy evaluated?]. FOM / POF Official website. URL: http://fom.ru/Politika/12561 [date of visit: 3.08.2016].
Kiselev I. Y., Smirnova A. G., Hrabrova K. G. Posledstvija vneshnepoliticheskogo kursa kak faktor vnutripoliticheskikh poter’ lidera [The Consequences of Foreign Policy as a Factor of the Loss of Domestic Political Leader]. Vlast, 2015, no 10, pp. 42–49.
Levy J. S. The Causes of War and the Conditions of Peace. Annual Review of Political Science, 1998, no 1, pp. 139–165.
Miriasova O. A. Potencial, repertuar i faktory massovoy politicheskoy aktivnosti v Rossii [Potential, Repertoire and Factors of Mass Political Activity in Russia]. Politicheskaja nauka, 2014, no 4, pp. 162–185.
Potter P. B., Baum M. A. Looking for Audience Costs in all the Wrong Places: Electoral Institutions, Media Access, and Democratic Constraint. The Journal of Politics, 2014, Vol. 76, no 1, pp. 167–181.
Risse-Kappen T. Public Opinion, Domestic Structure, and Foreign Policy in Liberal Democracies. World Politics, 1991, Vol. 43, no. 4, pp. 479–512.
Shestopal E. B. Politicheskaja socializacija i resocializacija v sovremennoy Rossii [Political Socialization and Re-socialization in Modern Russia]. Politija, 2005, no 4, pp. 48–69.
Shestopal E. B. Putin 3.0: obschestvo i vlast’ v noveyshey istorii Rossii [Putin 3.0: Society and Power in the Modern History of Russia: Monograph]. Moscow, ARGAMAK-MEDIA, 2015. 420 p.
Strahi i trevogi. Chto bol’she vsego trevozhit rossijan v povsednevnoy zhizni, v zhizni strany i mira? [Fears and Anxieties. What is Most Disturbing Russians in Everyday Life, in the country and the World Life?].FOM / POF Official website. URL: http://fom.ru/Nastroeniya/12596 [date of visit: 5.08.2016].
Tomz M. Domestic Audience Cost in International Relations: An Experimental Approach. International Organization, 2007, no 61, pp. 821–840.